Rich Men North of Richmond (I love Beyoncé but she ain’t paying my bills)
The counting of the few remaining votes continues, but the result isn’t in doubt. Trump and his version of the Republican Party have won.
Tens of thousands, possibly more, words have been written about what the result means and in the UK emergency podcasts have been hosted.
So why am I, a Brit living in London who hasn’t been to the US on holiday or to campaign since Obama’s first term, bothering to add to the noise. It certainly isn’t to lecture, it might be because I’m tired of “UK exceptionalism” or perhaps simply because I think a lot of the UK commentary suggesting any single issue was responsible for Trump’s win is many miles from the truth.
On Monday, January 20, 2025 Trump's second inauguration to the presidency of the US will take place after a peaceful handover from Joe Biden. A return to the normal, decent process of politics that Trump will enjoy but probably not understand the significance of.
I will avoid the easy and lazy topics of whether a different candidate or selection process would’ve delivered a different result, the bizarre claim that Harris lacked policies - she had plenty and the very 2017 Corbynesque “look at some of down ballot races the Dems won!” nonsense, all of those are debates for those in denial.
For most of of my political and adult life I have been told and I understood that incumbency matters and is a huge advantage in elections.
In recent years that appears to have changed, this from John Burn-Murdoch. columnist and the chief data reporter for the Financial Times, covers the issue in-depth Democrats Join 2024’s Graveyard of Incumbents and I think the “curse of incumbency” is a real thing in current politics but while I think it is important it isn’t the whole story.
I love Beyoncé but she ain’t paying my bills
The national campaigns, viewed from afar, were very different and in the final weeks a day didn’t go by without an A List mega star coming out in support of Harris. If you wanted glamour, glitz and a good-time this was the campaign for you, those great songs and of course Taylor Swift added to the buzz and excitement.
Springsteen, who has always been humble about his political endorsements once said “when all is said and done, my vote is of the same value as every other vote” and I think we should remember that and avoid the temptation to overstate the importance of any endorsement.
Some Springsteen lyrics to think about that probably mattered more when people voted than his endorsement
🎶Now I've been a-looking for a job, but it's ha-hard to find. There’s winners and there's losers, and I am south of the line. Well, I'm tired of getting caught out on the losing end🎶
The Trump Campaign
One of things of note about the Trump campaign was, again viewing from the UK, his reliance on rallies with very little other ‘real world’ voter contact.
Every rally was subjected to analysis of his rambling, often incoherent prose, provocative and at times exaggerated or untrue statements, and weird on-stage behaviours with very little focus on policy.
It might be a bit of a stretch to say this was planned, but we Brits know how a blond haired, male politician can win an election by hiding behind a character that allows their flaws and policies to become secondary to their ‘act’, not quite the Greatest Showman in the World level but if it was all designed to distract, and in the world of politics distraction is not a new thing, it worked. Everything became about Trump not policies and my guess is he loved that.
His campaign also highlighted his fragility. The McDonald’s stunt showed he was hurt by the fact Harris had “claimed McDonald’s”, a hugely symbolic thing, and he couldn’t attack or criticise it, so he tried in his own way to retake it. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a framed photo of him serving fries during the stunt on his desk.
Trumpism
Back in 2016 Trump declared “While I love my company and what I have built, I love my country even more.” the bit he probably withheld was about how much he loved himself more than both of the others.
To fully understand Trumpism, I think we need to go back to 2011 and the reasons many believe he became obsessed with being the Republican nominee for the 2016 election was because Obama had laughed at him - you can read more about that here The roast by Obama that insulted Trump so deeply it motivated him to run for president and understanding that pethaps helps to understand understand “Trumpism” it isn’t a political ideology, it is about one thin skinned man who demands that he is acknowledged as the biggest and best at everything, built up by a life of privilege where people around him have always said “yes” and everything is about him making a deal, regardless of consequences, so he can boast about sealing a deal.
For me Trumpism is less to do with any political ideology and more about a project driven by narcissism.
Much, certainly in the UK, has been made of how he signalled an end to “transactivism winning” and that this was a significant factor in his victory.
My view is the truth is very different, the reason he used the “they don’t know what a woman is” line was as an attempt to counter the concerns about a Trump presidency assault on women’s rights, an attack that was hurting and his pick for Vice President hadn’t helped.
The response probably stopped some votes drifting from the Trump pile, but I don’t think it will have added enough new votes to make a difference and during the Trump presidency I doubt very much it will be something he spends much time on.
Trump sees the USA as his corporation and nothing else matters and that rather than political belief drives his ““My job is not to represent the world. My job is to represent the United States of America.” stuff.
Moving on from the thin skinned reaction to the Obama jibe, it is highly probable the main reasons he stood for election this time were to avoid jail time and to prove he could beat Biden and in doing so prove that 2020 was stolen from him.
How it must still hurt that he has never beaten Biden.
Lessons For The Left
Everyone will have an opinion about what “the left” means, for me both Labour and Democrats are part of the left in their respective countries and that isn’t a debate I’m interested in having here (or anywhere).
The “Beyonce ain’t paying my bills” in the headline was an anecdotal report of a voters response to a question about the election, included in something I read earlier and it stuck with me as being reminder of the issues that really matter.
In current political campaigns and speeches we hear a lot about how growth is the answer to it all our problems but there’s a question that is rarely answered: does it just mean growth of GDP or does it include growth for households, does it mean people will feel things are getting better when they work hard. For the left and any incumbent that is a key question we need to be able to answer.
Too often we say we need to listen more. But listening isn’t enough. We have to hear, reflect and respond and that isn’t us simply saying what we said previously with the words in a slightly different order.
It obviously doesn’t mean we should embrace racism or rip up our core values, it is about connecting and ensuring our politics speaks to and deals with the concerns of voters.
An example from the UK: A elderly woman at a meeting to discuss 300 asylum seekers arriving in her town, is worried about the impact it will have on already overstretched local health services. Rather than dismissing her concerns as scaremongering or calling her racist, her question must be answered and she must be heard.
One of the main criticisms of the left over the years has been that we “love to consult but we love telling people what is good for them more” and that has to change.
This isn’t about better comms, it is about better politics.
And
Over the years people have talked excitedly about whether an election was going to be the first real “social media election” and many will argue that the support for Trump from Twitter/X owner Elon Musk was crucial to Trump’ victory, I wouldn’t argue that it wasn’t helpful but I wouldn’t say “It was Twitter/X wot won it”
The one real winner from Twitter/X support was Musk, whether he survives a full Trump term isn’t something I would bet on.
How should Starmer react?
Firstly I need to say that I have filed suggestions that Starmer should sack foreign secretary David Lammy in the “totally bananas file, along with suggestions that Trump’s victory should lead to a full cabinet reshuffle.
Every US presidential election brings with it some challenges and this is no different. We need to have a strong relationship with the US, Starmer like all PMs before him, knows this and will want to continue to cooperate and work with the US where we can. As always “Country First. Party Second” is more than just a slogan.
Rex lines should be communicated and understood early, preferably before the inauguration.
And Finally
The wider political lessons are as already stated. I think the 2025 UK local elections are going to be difficult for Labour, that doesn’t mean the next general election is lost. If we can once again prove that we have listened and acted. That growth has helped improve lives and cost-of-living is under control and there are things people can see and feel to know life is getting better/easier we can win.
If not, it is possible, our own Trump with added ideology, Farage, is waiting to take advantage of any failure.
And perhaps after all the analysis is over it could be that Rich Men North of Richmond Oliver Anthony was the real story behind this election.
If you got this far - thank you.
I included a couple of links, my apologies if they don’t work you you.
As always, although Trump will never read this, I guess it is polite and proper to say: Congratulations on your victory
And remember the price of a loaf of bread and being able to pay your rent is politics.
Tim
Excellent analysis Tim. 👍🏻